The latest twist in the United and JetBlue merger saga occurred today during a JetBlue earnings call, where the carrier announced that it plans to add a new domestic airline partner this quarter. The question now is less of who, and more of what the partnership will entail.
JetBlue has been Searching for a Partner and United Appears Interested
It’s no secret that JetBlue has been struggling to return to profitability in a post-Covid world and that it has been looking for an airline to partner with for quite some time. The New York based carrier initially partnered with American Airlines through their Northeast Alliance, though that was eventually shut down by a judge. JetBlue then proceeded to attempt a merger with Spirit Airlines and that too was shut down, leaving the carrier in a tough spot.
JetBlue is not part of any major global airline alliance, though it has been working to expand its partnerships internationally and recently adding Japan Airlines to the mix. The airline up until yesterday had been in talks with American Airlines but those were ultimately called off. Delta hasn’t shown any interest in JetBlue and is well positioned in the major markets where they overlap.
The idea of a tie-up between JetBlue and United is nothing new. Back in January it was reported that United appeared to be interested in purchasing JetBlue. Unsurprisingly, this rumor spread like wildfire which caused United to add in a 8-K filing that it had no plans to make any acquisitions of other carriers in the near future. While not completely dispelling the rumors, it certainly threw ice on the fire.
The rumor mill flared back up in March when United CEO Scott Kirby stated during an industry panel that “the ball is going to be in JetBlue’s court” regarding any potential merger or partnership actions.
JetBlue held its Q1 2025 earnings call today and Company President Marty St. George gave the best indicator yet that a major change is coming:
“If you are a customer in the Northeast and you love JetBlue for leisure, but twice a year you have to go to Omaha or Boise, these are places that you can’t earn TrueBlue points on now and when this partnership goes forward, you will be able to.”
Through process of elimination, it’s almost guaranteed that JetBlue and United will be partnering with one another. The only thing left to determine is what that partnership will look like.
How JetBlue Can Help United
Scott Kirby has made no secret of the fact that he wants to return to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK), stating that he wants the Chicago based carrier to have a presence at the airport. The easiest way back in, given the airport is slot controlled, is through a partnership or merger with an existing carrier.
JetBlue has a sizeable operation at JFK and has spent tons of money upgrading its facilities there. It is a formidable competitor to American and Delta, both of which operate hubs at the airport. It is possible that as part of a partnership, United could gain access to slots and gates via JetBlue. Also, if the two airlines codeshare, it could provide feed to United’s Star Alliance partners at the airport.
Florida also presents a massive opportunity for United through a partnership with JetBlue as it would fill a hole in the carrier’s route map. United’s two closest hubs to the southeastern United States are in Houston and Washington D.C. JetBlue has a large operation at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) which could help plug that hole.
Is a Merger Possible?
We saw the Biden administration be extremely tough on merger and acquisition activities, maybe even too much so in the case of Spirit and JetBlue. However, the M&A landscape, and the airline industry as a whole, look a lot different now. We saw the Alaska/Hawaiian merger approved with little fanfare at the end of the Biden administration and there is likely more opportunity for consolidation giving the current market conditions.
In addition to the network synergies outlined above, both airlines operate common fleet types in the Airbus A320 family of aircraft. United has been working to refresh its mainline fleet and I’m sure it would be happy to replace some of its aging Airbus A319 and A320 aircraft with newer A321s and A220s from JetBlue.
In my opinion a merger between JetBlue and United can be good for customers. JetBlue’s three primary hubs are in Boston, New York, and Fort Lauderdale. Delta has a large operation in Boston and adding another global carrier with a strong presence there could be a positive for customers.
United returning to New York-JFK would give all three U.S. global carriers a hub at the airport and could help relieve pressure from United’s nearby Newark hub which has been plagued by ATC issues in recent months. Finally, in Florida, United would become a solid competitor to American Airlines’ nearby Miami hub and, to a lesser extent, Delta’s Atlanta hub.
If a merger is on the table, it will no doubt be more drawn out than what we saw between Alaska and Hawaiian, especially considering how congested and competitive aviation is in the Northeast.
I do believe this merger has a good chance of being approved with the current administration being much more open to consolidation than the previous one. It also doesn’t hurt that Scott Kirby has been singing the praises of the President, which should buy him some bonus points.
Summary
A partnership between JetBlue and United appears to be imminent with the President of JetBlue stating they expect to have a partnership with a major domestic carrier in place soon. There have been rumors swirling since the beginning of the year about whether the two carriers could possibly merge, given JetBlue’s financial state and the synergies that could be unlocked by the two carriers.
While I don’t think a merger announcement is coming in the next few, this partnership could be the first step towards increased cooperation between the two airlines which could ultimately lead to consolidation down the road.
